The requested briefing is being assembled.
Markets
Price is the market’s standing assessment of risk to supply. These are the instruments that move when a waterway is threatened, read alongside the transit counts that say whether traffic has actually changed.
Closing levels and the change on the session. The sparkline carries the selected window (6 months); the range beneath it sites the current level against that window, and each tile states how many observations it actually holds.
Brent Crude
99.25 USD
+0.9% on the session
-5.0% over 6 months
6-month range 71.57 – 118.35
132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23
89th percentile of 526 sessions since 2024-08-28
WTI Crude
90.25 USD
+0.8% on the session
-2.3% over 6 months
6-month range 68.55 – 112.95
132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23
86th percentile of 526 sessions since 2024-08-28
Henry Hub Natural Gas
3.1690 USD
-0.3% on the session
+7.7% over 6 months
6-month range 2.5230 – 3.3430
132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23
51st percentile of 526 sessions since 2024-08-28
RBOB Gasoline
3.2185 USD
+0.6% on the session
+2.2% over 6 months
6-month range 2.8388 – 3.7715
132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23
87th percentile of 526 sessions since 2024-08-28
Heating Oil
4.6964 USD
+0.5% on the session
+9.5% over 6 months
6-month range 3.0931 – 5.2620
132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23
98th percentile of 526 sessions since 2024-08-28
The one derived series the desk publishes. WTI prices landlocked US crude; Brent prices crude that must transit water to reach a refinery. Their difference strips out the global demand shock both grades share and leaves the part attributable to moving barrels past a chokepoint — so a spread that widens on a day with no demand story is a maritime signal, where the absolute price of either grade alone is not.
Equity markets of the states that sit on the waterways. These price the consequences of a disruption for the economies exposed to it, which is a different question from what a barrel costs.
Tel Aviv 125
4,173 ILS
+0.2% on the session
-1.2% over 6 months
6-month range 3,942 – 4,481
120 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
86th percentile of 438 sessions since 2024-08-28
BIST 100
13,220 TRY
-0.9% on the session
+0.4% over 6 months
6-month range 12,626 – 15,134
125 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
74th percentile of 517 sessions since 2024-08-28
EGX 30
54,931 EGP
-0.1% on the session
-0.3% over 6 months
6-month range 54,797 – 56,676
19 sessions, 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-22
26th percentile of 19 sessions since 2026-08-26
iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia
37.35 USD
+0.5% on the session
-1.3% over 6 months
6-month range 36.34 – 40.63
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
14th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
iShares MSCI Qatar
16.71 USD
-1.0% on the session
-10.5% over 6 months
6-month range 16.71 – 19.40
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
0th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
iShares MSCI UAE
20.18 USD
+0.6% on the session
+8.5% over 6 months
6-month range 17.80 – 20.40
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
93rd percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
iShares MSCI Israel
126.79 USD
-0.7% on the session
+5.2% over 6 months
6-month range 110.23 – 137.69
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
93rd percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
iShares MSCI Turkey
37.35 USD
-0.8% on the session
-4.2% over 6 months
6-month range 36.18 – 43.74
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
64th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
The businesses of lifting, moving and refining the barrel, rather than the barrel itself. They can move against the benchmarks above on the same news: a supply shock that lifts crude also raises the cost of every input a refiner buys, and a services company with a Gulf contract book prices the risk to that book rather than the price of the cargo. The three tracking funds are listed last because they follow the benchmarks already printed above and add a tradeable price rather than a new fact.
Energy Select Sector SPDR
61.85 USD
-1.0% on the session
+3.7% over 6 months
6-month range 52.81 – 65.93
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
95th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
Vanguard Energy ETF
174.30 USD
-1.0% on the session
+2.9% over 6 months
6-month range 149.33 – 185.61
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
94th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
VanEck Oil Services ETF
395.08 USD
-0.4% on the session
-0.9% over 6 months
6-month range 359.60 – 453.92
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
81st percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration
181.97 USD
-1.5% on the session
+4.1% over 6 months
6-month range 153.03 – 199.70
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
95th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
iShares Oil & Gas E&P
132.70 USD
-2.2% on the session
+9.5% over 6 months
6-month range 107.47 – 144.76
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
95th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
ExxonMobil
158.92 USD
+0.4% on the session
-1.4% over 6 months
6-month range 136.06 – 171.47
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
92nd percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
TotalEnergies
89.52 USD
-0.6% on the session
+0.4% over 6 months
6-month range 74.80 – 93.60
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
90th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
SLB
52.26 USD
+1.0% on the session
+6.1% over 6 months
6-month range 45.09 – 60.10
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
86th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
United States Brent Oil Fund
58.00 USD
-1.5% on the session
+21.1% over 6 months
6-month range 39.41 – 63.56
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
97th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
United States Oil Fund
144.08 USD
-2.8% on the session
+30.3% over 6 months
6-month range 103.27 – 161.86
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
96th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
United States Natural Gas Fund
10.92 USD
+6.4% on the session
-6.9% over 6 months
6-month range 9.6300 – 12.28
127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
15th percentile of 518 sessions since 2024-08-28
The ships that have to make the passage. These usually move against the regional equities above rather than with them: a closure is bad for the economies on the strait and good for whoever owns the tankers that must now sail around it, so agreement between the two sections is itself worth noticing. Crude and product owners are listed before container and the sector funds, because Hormuz is a crude story and the Red Sea is a container one.
Frontline
47.51 USD
-4.6% on the session
+40.4% over 6 months
6-month range 33.39 – 54.03
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
98th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
DHT Holdings
21.40 USD
-4.7% on the session
+20.4% over 6 months
6-month range 16.24 – 23.27
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
98th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
International Seaways
104.00 USD
-4.7% on the session
+48.6% over 6 months
6-month range 70.00 – 111.15
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
98th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
Teekay Tankers
95.60 USD
-3.2% on the session
+37.8% over 6 months
6-month range 64.33 – 100.92
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
98th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
Scorpio Tankers
82.42 USD
-4.4% on the session
+16.6% over 6 months
6-month range 69.26 – 87.85
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
96th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
TORM
34.99 USD
-5.7% on the session
+31.5% over 6 months
6-month range 26.06 – 38.23
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
97th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
ZIM Integrated Shipping
30.67 USD
+0.7% on the session
+18.3% over 6 months
6-month range 23.49 – 30.67
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
100th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF
15.20 USD
-5.5% on the session
+52.2% over 6 months
6-month range 9.8000 – 16.58
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
97th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
SonicShares Global Shipping ETF
52.31 USD
-1.8% on the session
+30.2% over 6 months
6-month range 37.71 – 53.43
126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22
99th percentile of 514 sessions since 2024-09-03
Two different questions, so two different tables. A Gulf currency is pegged to the dollar by its central bank, and the only reading that matters is whether the peg is holding — a percentage change on a defended parity describes noise, not news. A floating rate carries no parity, so its trend is the reading. Deviations are shown in basis points because the movements that matter here are too small to survive being rounded to a percent.
| Pair | Rate | Parity | Deviation | State | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/AEDUAE | 3.67260 | 3.67250 | +0.3 bps | Holding | |
| USD/BHDBahrain | 0.37690 | 0.37600 | +23.9 bps | Holding | |
| USD/JODJordan | 0.70800 | 0.70900 | -14.1 bps | Holding | |
| USD/OMROman | 0.38500 | 0.38450 | +13.0 bps | Holding | |
| USD/QARQatar | 3.64000 | 3.64000 | 0.0 bps | Holding | |
| USD/SARSaudi Arabia | 3.75520 | 3.75000 | +13.9 bps | Holding |
| Pair | Rate | Session | Regime | 6-month range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar IndexGlobal | 100.59 | 0.00% | Floating | 97.8400 – 101.61 | |
| USD/EGPEgypt | 51.5800 | 0.00% | Floating | 48.7837 – 54.6538 | |
| USD/ILSIsrael | 3.00460 | +0.20% | Floating | 2.80050 – 3.16373 | |
| USD/KWDKuwait | 0.30730 | 0.00% | Managed basket | 0.30478 – 0.31011 | |
| USD/TRYTurkey | 48.8272 | 0.00% | Floating | 44.3386 – 48.8272 |
Stories concerning the states whose instruments appear above, newest first. Each row names the instruments it was matched to, so the basis for the link is visible and can be rejected. The match is by country — the desk does not claim any of these stories moved a price, and nothing here is ordered by, or aligned to, market movement.
Every figure plotted above, in full. No value on this page is reachable only by hover or by reading a slope.
| Instrument | Symbol | Close | Ccy | Session | Change over 6 months | 6-month range low | 6-month range high | Observed | Window held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | CRUDE_BRENT | 99.25 | USD | +0.9% | -5.0% | 71.57 | 118.35 | 2026-09-23 | 132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23 |
| WTI Crude | CRUDE_WTI | 90.25 | USD | +0.8% | -2.3% | 68.55 | 112.95 | 2026-09-23 | 132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23 |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | NATGAS | 3.1690 | USD | -0.3% | +7.7% | 2.5230 | 3.3430 | 2026-09-23 | 132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23 |
| RBOB Gasoline | GASOLINE | 3.2185 | USD | +0.6% | +2.2% | 2.8388 | 3.7715 | 2026-09-23 | 132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23 |
| Heating Oil | HEATOIL | 4.6964 | USD | +0.5% | +9.5% | 3.0931 | 5.2620 | 2026-09-23 | 132 sessions, 2026-03-24 to 2026-09-23 |
| Instrument | Symbol | Close | Ccy | Session | Change over 6 months | 6-month range low | 6-month range high | Observed | Window held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tel Aviv 125 | TA125 | 4,173 | ILS | +0.2% | -1.2% | 3,942 | 4,481 | 2026-09-22 | 120 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| BIST 100 | BIST100 | 13,220 | TRY | -0.9% | +0.4% | 12,626 | 15,134 | 2026-09-22 | 125 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| EGX 30 | EGX30 | 54,931 | EGP | -0.1% | -0.3% | 54,797 | 56,676 | 2026-09-22 | 19 sessions, 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-22 |
| iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia | KSA | 37.35 | USD | +0.5% | -1.3% | 36.34 | 40.63 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| iShares MSCI Qatar | QAT | 16.71 | USD | -1.0% | -10.5% | 16.71 | 19.40 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| iShares MSCI UAE | UAE | 20.18 | USD | +0.6% | +8.5% | 17.80 | 20.40 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| iShares MSCI Israel | EIS | 126.79 | USD | -0.7% | +5.2% | 110.23 | 137.69 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| iShares MSCI Turkey | TUR | 37.35 | USD | -0.8% | -4.2% | 36.18 | 43.74 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| Instrument | Symbol | Close | Ccy | Session | Change over 6 months | 6-month range low | 6-month range high | Observed | Window held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Select Sector SPDR | XLE | 61.85 | USD | -1.0% | +3.7% | 52.81 | 65.93 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| Vanguard Energy ETF | VDE | 174.30 | USD | -1.0% | +2.9% | 149.33 | 185.61 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| VanEck Oil Services ETF | OIH | 395.08 | USD | -0.4% | -0.9% | 359.60 | 453.92 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration | XOP | 181.97 | USD | -1.5% | +4.1% | 153.03 | 199.70 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| iShares Oil & Gas E&P | IEO | 132.70 | USD | -2.2% | +9.5% | 107.47 | 144.76 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 158.92 | USD | +0.4% | -1.4% | 136.06 | 171.47 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | 89.52 | USD | -0.6% | +0.4% | 74.80 | 93.60 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| SLB | SLB | 52.26 | USD | +1.0% | +6.1% | 45.09 | 60.10 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| United States Brent Oil Fund | OIL_FUND_BRENT | 58.00 | USD | -1.5% | +21.1% | 39.41 | 63.56 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| United States Oil Fund | OIL_FUND_WTI | 144.08 | USD | -2.8% | +30.3% | 103.27 | 161.86 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| United States Natural Gas Fund | GAS_FUND | 10.92 | USD | +6.4% | -6.9% | 9.6300 | 12.28 | 2026-09-22 | 127 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| Instrument | Symbol | Close | Ccy | Session | Change over 6 months | 6-month range low | 6-month range high | Observed | Window held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontline | TANKER_FRONTLINE | 47.51 | USD | -4.6% | +40.4% | 33.39 | 54.03 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| DHT Holdings | TANKER_DHT | 21.40 | USD | -4.7% | +20.4% | 16.24 | 23.27 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| International Seaways | TANKER_INSW | 104.00 | USD | -4.7% | +48.6% | 70.00 | 111.15 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| Teekay Tankers | TANKER_TEEKAY | 95.60 | USD | -3.2% | +37.8% | 64.33 | 100.92 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| Scorpio Tankers | TANKER_SCORPIO | 82.42 | USD | -4.4% | +16.6% | 69.26 | 87.85 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| TORM | TANKER_TORM | 34.99 | USD | -5.7% | +31.5% | 26.06 | 38.23 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| ZIM Integrated Shipping | CONTAINER_ZIM | 30.67 | USD | +0.7% | +18.3% | 23.49 | 30.67 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF | FREIGHT_DRY_ETF | 15.20 | USD | -5.5% | +52.2% | 9.8000 | 16.58 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |
| SonicShares Global Shipping ETF | SHIPPING_ETF | 52.31 | USD | -1.8% | +30.2% | 37.71 | 53.43 | 2026-09-22 | 126 sessions, 2026-03-23 to 2026-09-22 |